|One of the most hotly anticipated Public Offerings of the year gets underway today, amid a flurry of speculation about the wisdom of the timing. Betting exchange iBetX for one believes that the markets they have been running on the Google IPO predict that the company is over-priced.|
The ‘First day up or down?’ market shows Google will be down on first day of trading; while the ‘Over/under opening price?’ market showed that 65% thought that the share price will be below the starting price of $125 at the end of the first day.
Asked to speculate on the opening percentage change on first day of trading, from -30 to + 30, the market decided the percentage change to be between -1 and –10.
IBetX insists that well-constructed open markets are better predictors future events than the experts: “In a classic example, the average guess, made by 100 participants, on the number of jellybeans in a jar is typically better than the best individual guess. Decisions derived from thousands of informed people would be more accurate prediction of reality.“ said iBetX Director Imraan Malik .
'While polls show what people think now, the iBetX trading exchange shows what informed people with their own money at stake, think what will eventually happen to Google's IPO'