|With John Howard winning the Australian federal election, the analysis of how polls and betting sites performed in their ability to predict the result has begun. Interestingly, although the majority of polls and online sites steadily gave Howard as the favourite, it seems the online betting sites may have performed better on predicting the comprehensive nature of the victory, in which the successful Coalition party won whilst also increasing their majority.|
The odds offered on leading Australian site Centrebet the day before the election offered Aus$1.20 return for a dollar bet on Howard, and Aus$4 for Labor leader Latham winning. These odds translate into giving the victorious Coalition party a 77 percent chance of winning- a much greater chance than that offered by the polls. Concerning marginal seats, Centrebet again put in a strong show correctly predicting 27 of the 33 seats being contested. A strong performance in itself, the odds offered on these seats were also the only source throughout the Australian press, political analysts and betting markets which accurately foresaw the increasing margin for Howard and his party.
While few analysts, and in fact punters, predicted the majority win, it was only Centrebet with its decisive odds that indicated the strength with which the Coalition went into the election. Also their take on the marginal seats showed their belief that their majority would increase. Some of the most respected political commentators in the country had announced in the mainstream press the fact that although the Coalition would win, their majority would in fact decrease. Centrebet has already built itself a strong reputation for their ability to predict the outcome of Australian political races- this most recent result has served to confirm the reliability of the odds they give in measuring the final outcome.