|Irish based site Intrade has now overtaken its forerunner the Iowa Electronic Markets, in terms of size. The Iowa based site, run by the University of Iowa specializing in trading on US presidential futures started 16 years ago, but is now being eclipsed by Intrade in terms of popularity and the amounts of money being placed with them. Intrade is a company based in Dublin, and a brand owned by TradeSports.com.|
Currently in regard to the US presidential election race, Intrade has seem over US$ 4 million being placed with it, by punters or observers keen to set a price on their predicted result. By comparison the Iowa based site, which is a non profit organisation has seen US$162,000 being spent.
There has been a general increase in political wagering, a trend that Intrade is capitalizing on at the moment. With increased interest from punters and analysts alike, the sites are also being as a gauge for predicting results. Scott Johnston, a money manager at Peconic Management Company, and a keen follower of Intrade explained this site’s increased appeal: 'TradeSports is a more efficient market and a deeper market. I probably watch this more than any human being.'
Currently Bush has an 8.9 percentage lead ahead of Kerry on Intrade, while he has a 21.3 percentage lead on the Iowa Electronic Market. There is little difference being recorded between the two candidates in most polls. While Intrade currently has no predictive track record in terms of US elections, Iowa Electronic has a very strong record, with only one prediction, (that George W Bush would win the popular vote in 2000, he was beaten in terms of votes by AL Gore, although then famously won the race in the controversial Supreme Court stopping of a recount in Florida)- being wrong in their sixteen year history. According to Johnston, Intrade will prove as reliable, if not more, thanks to the depth of the people casting their opinion on its site.