|The election has been called one of the closest elections in recent years, but betting patterns are currently showing Bush in the lead.|
The weight of money being placed on Betfair contradicts the election polls which show the race is too close to call. Currently, bets indicate Bush has a 60 per cent probability of winning, a clear margin over Kerry. Bush has received a massive £2.3 million of support from gamblers, compared to £680,000 for Kerry.
Betfair has a history of being able to more accurately predict the outcome of elections than any other means. In Australia last month, John Howard won with an unprecedented majority. Betfair had placed him at the 60 per cent mark whereas opinion polls showed he was behind his opponent with a mere 40 per cent of the vote. Howard had a 52.67 per cent victory.
Experts believe the accurate results are due to an open betting platform where punters can vote against each other rather than odds created to balance the books. In effect, it means people put their money where their mouths are, creating an overall better reflection of voting patterns.
Next Tuesday will see whether this election will see the same accuracy from Betfair seen in the Australian election.